Thursday, June 30, 2011

There's No Crying In Baseball

Even if your team gets crushed without prejudice for decorum and decency. You want etiquette - go play cricket. They will at least do it with a wink and a smile. 

With that in mind and with each trading hour, I am stumbling towards the wrong side of the tracks and an oncoming train with my market call for a lower low. There were some clues - between the relative strength of the small caps coming out of the 1258 low and the extreme CBOE equity-only put/call ratio the week before. I discounted them in the immediate sense that a lower low was upon us. The markets have a creative way of taking your trading plan at times and doing the polar opposite. This incessant rip higher over the past four sessions - the velocity and magnitude, heck vector if you will - was what I was looking for - only 180 degrees south. It would certainly be a generous act for the market to continue the mirror opposite and promptly pivot back. That likely resides in the immediate sense with any negative surprise in the ISM number tomorrow morning. By all accounts - not very likely.

Silver has continued to limp lower. Could we place the equity markets this week in the same arena that the Euro exhibited a few weeks back when Trichet proposed new bailout measures? Now that speculation has been squeezed out of silver like an old fashion wringing machine - has it ironically become the most pure market to judge the path of least resistance? Not so long ago this was the everything-bids-higher market. Am I biased here - perhaps. Am I speaking to all of you who choose to deny the existence of EOQ and EOM crowding - yes. It's a known demarcation where managers are judged by performance. Why would you ever deny that behavioral finance towards risk would not be impacted in the face of such dynamics? 

With that said - there's no crying in baseball. It simply is what it is. 
___________________________
I just joined Twitter. All my active trades and occasional market musings are disclosed in real-time here

(Position in UUP & SPXU)

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Always do your own due diligence. Erik Swarts is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this website be used or interpreted as a recommendation for any investment or trading approach to the markets. Trading and investing can be hazardous to your wealth. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor.