Friday, August 5, 2011

1998 Redux - Update

Monday evenings note (see Here) concerning the similarities in market conditions with 1998 is replicating along very similar lines - both in seasonality, price and volatility. After yesterdays extreme move lower - the downside target is coming into equal proportions to 1998. Following this analog - risk appears tilted towards further weakness in the equity markets in the near term. With that said, another leg down will likely be contingent on further exogenous propellant from Europe. 

Here is an updated chart after yesterday's close. 

I just joined Twitter. All my trades and occasional market musings are disclosed in real-time here

(Positions in UUP & GLL)

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Always do your own due diligence. Erik Swarts is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this website be used or interpreted as a recommendation for any investment or trading approach to the markets. Trading and investing can be hazardous to your wealth. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor