Saturday, November 19, 2011

Weekly Recap

In case you missed it, here's an abstract for the week at Market Anthropology. For those of you that are new, I typically like to introduce my market postures for the week in my initial note - and add color as the week progresses. 


"Near term, in either case - bull or bear, I find the market precariously placed at the top of the range and likely to fall back swiftly over the balance of the month." 

"Here is another analog of the XLF that I've been following. You will notice that I have adopted the comparative structure - as the range has extended and narrowed. I believe the outcomes will all be the same (lower), but the market has chosen a more difficult path to profile." 

"This week is a perfect example of why many traders stay away altogether from trading options expiration. Considering this market was already difficult to appraise - it's sound strategy. I decided that after the XLF broke through the bottom hourly rail this afternoon that I would widen the time frame out to a weekly chart for better perspective. Could the market be getting ready to close the performance differential- as illustrated in the video segment Monday (see Here)? 
"As I have mentioned previously in my earlier notes, bear markets typically finds "The" low with a lower VIX print. Considering the market has traded on a similar arc as the 2008/2009 bear - albeit swifter and shallower - you can use the VIX map from that time period as a loose guide for estimating when volatility and price might exhaust themselves. "