Wednesday, December 14, 2011

SPX Update

Here is a new analog overlay for the violent reversal I am anticipating in the equity markets  ~ 1210. If it proves prescient, we should see another bounce attempt materialize today, but ultimately fail providing the low. From the perspective of obvious catalysts, the euro's heavily lopsided short positions could provide the black powder for this blowoff move.
From yesterday's note:

I believe the equity markets are about to audible on those of us anticipating the next shoe to drop in the sovereign debt crisis. What is interesting from the perspective of balance, price structure and momentum, is the market has been trading very similar to the early Spring tape when a certain esteemed economist capitulated practically at the top of the market. 

Over the coming sessions, I expect the SPX to find a low ~ 1212 before changing into the jolly old St. Nick - just in time for Christmas. From the perspective of balance, it's seems fitting that this stage of the crisis would be bookended by a similar blow-off move. The market's structure and momentum as expressed in the stochastic indicators exhibits a strong congruency to this Spring.