Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Qualifying the Quantitative

If you've followed my work over the past 18 months, there is a consistent theme towards the US dollar:

It's a relative game - global finance, and QE or not - the cycle points higher for the dollar.

Here is an updated chart from a few weeks back of that notion which compares the last time the dollar made a secular low. 
Helping things along appears to be a spring low taking shape along a tighter time frame. This is a much different structure than the bear market rally the dollar exhibited after QE2 was enacted. It is actually quite similar, both in structure and momentum - to the March 2009 low in the SPX. 
Considering my work with the Aussie points to the inverse of this dynamic, I feel quite confident in my longstanding expectation for the US dollar to continue to strengthen.