Monday, November 5, 2012

A Quick Word on the Aussie

While the Aussie provided prescient divergences in tensions in both the equity and commodity markets in September, it's reluctance to turn down throughout much of October was likely more a function of the rapid attention paid to its more obvious economic imbalances - than a mischaracterization of trend or character. In essence, the perspective became too popular. 
If you look at its closest commodity cousin in Canada - it appears to have discretely read the writing on the wall (with respect to both a downturn in commodity prices - as well as a pronounced housing & credit bubble) - and followed the CRB lower through the back half of October. 
I fully expect the Aussie to follow suit - regardless of what the RBA decides in the next few hours.