Sunday, January 6, 2013

Connecting the Dots - 1/6/2013

The long and short of things - the song remains the same:
  • We favor the US dollar against the euro and the Australian dollar - and broadly speaking see the US dollar index continuing to strengthen along the lines of the previous secular low. This currency comparative is congruent to the strong move in the US dollar index coming into 1997. 
  • We continue to see the CRB index gravitate back and eventually break the 2012 summer lows.
  • Silver remains quite vulnerable to another large leg down - with the expectations that the 2012 lows will be revisited and broken. 
  • Despite the exuberance exhibited last week, we favor large caps over small caps and make the ratio comparison to the downturn through 1997. However, overall we feel that the downside risks in the near term far outweigh the potential positive catalysts in chasing the equity markets here.