Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Damn the Torpedoes

After more than a 35% haircut in the price of silver since last October, silver investors are refusing to give up the fight. Damn the torpedoes and damn their own dogma - they're still enlisting and willing to go down with the ship. 

This is yet another example of why we have tended to qualify the extremes in sentiment and COT reports in gold and silver as less actionable; i.e. - they're still buying. 
"Denial"
This stoicism in the face of reality is nothing new, and a dynamic we have highlighted and exploited from a purely contrarian perspective since last November (see Here) and this past January (see Here)
"The Insatiable's"
What should be less than comforting for those still waiting for a rejuvenation of the bull, and leads us to believe that price erosion will continue even after the inevitable retracement bounce - is that the insatiable demand for precious metals, despite at this point very legible damages to the market - is spread throughout the world, most notably in Asia. 
"Asian Bargain Hunters Pile Into Gold" - FT
Although hanging on to an investment trend longer than one should is par for the course and readily expressed in the congruency of momentum between silver and our comparative with the post 1990 Nikkei bubble - we would argue that the particular fevered enthusiasm that precious metals investors share is likely much stronger than the average investors own dogma. For many, it became a religion of sorts and tragically a safe haven that has become anything but safe. 
Click to enlarge image
As always - Stay Frosty