Friday, July 19, 2013

"just how bad the crash will be"

Assuming the SPX continues to put more daylight between itself and the Meridian, we expect these updates will trickle to a halt. For the moment the market has roughly a 7% cushion for the balance of July after backtesting support in June. 

Although we typically don't rely heavily on trend lines for perspective, considering the pivotal history of rejection and support at the Meridian - this one we closely follow. 


Click to enlarge images
Despite hitting the relief valve in May, the SPX is loosely following the last time it broke through the Meridian in May 1995. 
Rounding things out from the backside of the globe, here's a daily comparative of our Shanghai series. Considering Krugman's timing yesterday and choice of words;
"You could say that the Chinese model is about to hit its Great Wall, and the only question now is just how bad the crash will be."
- we cherish the opportunity to take the other side.