Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Buy the Rumor - Sell the News

While the goal posts have tended to move on this field, rates are starting to crack today - just as they did in 2004 when the market had fully digested the Fed's change in posture and realized it was very likely coming down the pike at the next meeting. The old market adage, "Buy the rumor - sell the news" appears appropriate. Although for this scenario, it's really "Panic on Hilsenrath and breathe with Pianalto." 

Not exactly headline material. 

As we have been following, both charts of TNX have congruent structures and momentum profiles, reflecting very similar market psychologies as participants wrestled with a change in posture by the Fed. 

Click to enlarge image

Below are a few updates on other asset comparatives. They were all fit based on the 10 year yield profile to 2004. 
*  All stock chart data originally sourced and courtesy of 
*  Subsequent overlays and renderings completed by Market Anthropology