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Although the performance this year has kept up with the last Meridian upside break, unlike 1995's Madoff-esque smoothness, this year's volatility profile has been remarkably close to 2004 - thanks in large part to the Fed's taper-tantrums.
A similar dynamic also developed in the precious metals market, which from our perspective also remains one of the brighter spots for outperformance going into 2014.
As we occasionally do from time to time, we fitted the current tape to the comparatives next pivot based on shifts in its momentum profile.
Outstanding of (although buttressed by) our 2004 comparatives in the precious metals sector, we have viewed the most recent bear market as a successful retest of the 2008 crisis lows in gold, silver and their respective miners. This concept and relevance with the banks was explained in more detail (Here & Here & Here) in our previous notes.
Needless to say, the anxieties and reluctance expressed in the sector - reflects a brittle participant whose respective confidences have been eroded and reduced by a large and volatile range. We expect Donald Rumsfeld might have summed it up, "A retest of a retest - is certainly uncertainty to a higher power."Convergence with silver and the Aussie paid in spades yesterday.
Exuberancia irracional? No - la supervivencia irrational.
* All stock chart data originally sourced and courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
* Subsequent overlays and renderings completed by Market Anthropology