Friday, October 4, 2013

3 Up 3 Down - Tie Goes to the Bulls

Despite recent weakness in stocks, we continue to feel the tie goes to the Bulls when participating in this market environment. Although the catalysts for a change in character remain on the horizon, the greater burden of proof falls on the Bears woolen shoulders. 

The Bulls:
  • The SPX remains ~ 6% above its long-term Meridian (for October ~ 1576) and is still tracking the 95' breakthrough on a performance basis. 
  • Emerging markets and European equity markets (sans UK) have strongly outperformed - keeping pressure on the US dollar and pulling the euro higher in their wake. As we have shown in the past, this market dynamic is also correlated with higher beta outperformance - as displayed in the RUT:SPX ratio recently exceeding its April 2011 high. 
  • The banks (BKX) held above support ~ 62. 
The Bears:
  • The BKX has languished, underperforming the broader market and is sitting precariously close to crucial support ~ 62.
  • The Nikkei is tracking silver's post QE2 breakdown.
  • The yen has begun to breakout, just as the US dollar performed in the spring of 2011.
Click to enlarge images