Friday, October 18, 2013

Goldman Has it Backwards

As Goldman looks for their next place to short gold ("slam dunk" sell), they may want to consider one of its primary motivators - the US dollar. 

They also might want to consider the possibility that both the fiscal crisis in Washington and the extension of the taper are both disinflationary hurdles, that once resolved should maintain pressure on the dollar and reinforce the bid in the precious metals sector. From our perspective, Goldman's thesis for the trade is backwards.  

Here's an update of our euro/USDX series that continues to show notable similarities to 1994 when the dollar rolled over one last time through the lower register of its long-term range, even while the Fed was moving away from accommodative monetary policies. 

Further reading on the USDX and the euro:

A Comparative Case Study 
Roll-over $ & Make Room for the